Going through withdrawals

I’ve been filling out the voter guide pages, and have noticed that some names that were expected to show up on the list of qualified candidates for August ended up not being there. Here are a few of them:

Fall of the Marceauxviet Union

The more famous Basil Marceaux’s scion had pulled a petition in the newly combined 28th House District, after having run against Rep. JoAnne Favors in what was the 29th a couple of cycles ago. However, his name was not in the final list. Rest assured: Basil the Elder is in the race, and will face incumbent Rep. Richard Floyd in the Republican primary in District 27.

Over the hills and far away

Rep. Gary Moore decided rather at the last minute not to seek re-election to the 50th House District seat. Nashville-Davidson Metro Councilmember Bo Mitchell is in as a Democratic Party pinch hitter. Three Republicans will vie for their party’s nomination.

Breeding grounds

The only Democratic Party candidate to file for the new 89th House District has had her residency questioned, and some view this with suspicion.

What is love?

Rep. G.A. Hardaway, whose 92nd District was moved to Marshall County (et al.), actually qualified as a primary challenger to Rep. Mike Kernell in the 93rd. But he had pulled petitions for several districts, so we were kind of hoping he’d show up more than once in the list. Which district is Roxbury Street in, anyway?

The indomitable Lady J

Jean Howard-Hill not only failed to return her qualifying petition for the U.S. House 3rd District seat, she sent a defiant press release stating her intent to add “Independent” and “write-in” (along with “feisty”) to the list of adjectives with which she distinguishes her Republican-ness.

Candidates who qualified have until this Thursday to change their minds. If any do, or if any other news pops up, this site will be updated.

Your weather on the tens

Sen. Andy Berke caused an upper-level disturbance in District 10 when he announced that he will not seek re-election. At first the drop in barometric pressure was slight, since it appeared that Rep. Vince Dean would move in and thus push the volatility over to House District 30.

However, more recent data show Dean staying put, which quieted would-be candidates Larry Grohn and East Ridge Mayor Brent Lambert. Dean will likely face a comparatively weak Democratic front from either Brock Bennington or Sandra Norris Smith, which means he’ll probably blow right through without too much upheaval.

But oh, there’s a storm brewing in the Senate race. On the GOP side, business developer Greg Vital, who was in before Dean was out, is looking like he’ll produce heavy, soaking rains (of campaign cash) while there may be plenty of bluster from rival Todd Gardenhire.

The super cell we’re really watching, though, is the Democratic primary, which got a boost in severity on Friday when Chattanooga City Councilman Andraé McGary announced his intent to run for the seat. With the new district lines, the Republicans are hoping for a change in wind direction, but tensions between the Democrats backing McGary and those backing David Testerman could cause major damage within the party, which will please the GOP regardless. A potential third Democrat, Quenston Coleman, has yet to return his qualifying petition.

In Nashville, the Senate District 20 vortex caused by retiring Sen. Joe Haynes has drawn a substantial pack of storm chasers. Scooter Clippard, Steve Dickerson, David Hall, and Rob Mortensen are among the Republicans; and James Baxter, Kevin Doherty, and Richard Exton are possible Democratic contenders.

Meanwhile, spotters reported that Hall’s son and daughter have pulled petitions in House District 50; or is that bull? Charles Williamson wants to be the nominee to take on Rep. Gary Moore.

In House District 60, former Metro Council member Rep. Jim Gotto is set to clash with current member Darren Jernigan.

We’re trying to establish communications with Lawrence and Giles Counties to see what the situation is on the ground there. A bungled party switch attempt blew Rep. Eddie Bass right out of the water, and it’s just not clear from here what is left in the wake of that rural storm system.

In Memphis, redistricting caused Mississippi floodwaters to pool heavily in Senate District 30, as Sens. Jim Kyle and Beverly Marrero are forced into a primary match.

So far, no watches or warnings are posted for House Districts 10, 40, 80, or 90; but keep your browser tuned right here as things could change rapidly in most of these areas over the next week or two.

Vital signs

Chattanooga businessman Greg Vital has made it known that he intends to seek the 10th District Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Andy Berke—the same seat that Rep. Vince Dean was thoroughly expected to seek. However, as the Chattanooga Times Free Press also reports, Dean is being encouraged by House Speaker Beth Harwell and Majority Leader Gerald McCormick to stay put.

This would mean a shake-up in the developing GOP primary for House District 30, which would be an open seat if Dean were to run for the Senate. East Ridge Mayor Brent Lambert and Larry Grohn have picked up petitions, and there has been talk of a couple more candidates. Not many Republican candidates would be likely to stay in it against the incumbent, though. Two Democrats have also picked up papers to run: Brock Bennington and Brian White.

Collegedale resident Ray Minner, who has also been considering a run in the 30th after redistricting placed him in that district, says there is something telling in the GOP leaders’ actions:

Doesn’t anyone besides me find it very, very curious that “the two top House Republicans,” who have surely known for quite a long time that Vince Dean was planning to run for the Senate, said nothing, and even allowed him to make his announcement and pick up papers. Then suddenly, when Greg Vital decides HE wants that seat, they start to lean on Vince to stay in the House. Coincidence? Only the most naive would think so.

Meanwhile, it looks like voters in the new 28th District will have a contested primary in both of the two major parties. Democratic Reps. Tommie Brown and JoAnne Favors were placed into the same minority-majority district, and each has said she will seek the nomination. Two Republicans have also pulled petitions: Johnny Horne, who has run unsuccessfully for local and state offices in years past; and Basil Marceaux Jr., who previously ran in the old 29th District against Favors.

That’s not, by the way, the Basil Marceaux (“dot com”) you may be thinking of. The elder Marceaux is running for the state House as well, but in the 27th District, where he will challenge incumbent Rep. Richard Floyd in the GOP primary. (Trivia time: can anyone name other instances in which a parent and child were running in neighboring legislative districts in the same election?) Marceaux will be on the ballot on Super Tuesday too, as a candidate for Hamilton County Mayor.

In the new 29th, which covers eastern and northern Hamilton County, former sessions judge Mike Carter has so far drawn no opponents for the open seat. If this stays true, he will have pulled off quite a feat, given the rich swath of Republican votes it holds. The qualifying deadline is noon on April 5th.

The primary elections will be held on August 2nd.

GOP aspirants eye East Hamilton prize

Although redistricting plans have not yet been made fully public in Tennessee, a few potential candidates in Hamilton County have begun the arduous process of cautiously staking out what they believe (likely on good authority) will be new territory: an open Tennessee House of Representatives district in the eastern part of the county. Given the demographic makeup of the area, such a district would almost certainly be solidly Republican.

Among those the grapevine suggests might be interested are Mike Carter, a former General Sessions Judge, assistant to former County Mayor Claude Ramsey, and 2011 candidate to replace Ramsey; Wes Kliner, an attorney and former election commissioner; Ray Minner, an educator whose political forays include twice narrowly missing being elected to the Collegedale City Commission; and Robin Smith, former Tennessee Republican Party chair and 2010 candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives. (It’s not clear whether the new district boundaries would include Smith’s residence; and she is still reportedly deciding whether a rematch with U.S. Rep. Chuck Fleischmann is her 2012 focus.)

Attempts to confirm these and other active rumors are underway, and updates will be posted as more information becomes available. In the meantime, let me be clear that the above is simply hearsay at the moment, and is not intended as breaking news. It’s just what we sometimes like to talk about here.

UPDATE 11/23: Robin Smith does not live in the proposed new district, so strike her from the list. Also, there is another potential candidate—more to come.

All I wanna do is serve on a House subcommittee

Sheryl Crow for Tennessee House of Representatives?

That’s the long-shot idea proposed by Tennessee Equality Project’s Chris Sanders. Crow lives in Williamson County, one of the toniest in the nation.

With redistricting still not finalized, one can’t be sure, but there’s a chance a hypothetical Crow candidacy would face this guy, who’s already been made aware that a new district will include Franklin, Fairview, and Spring Hill.

Its probably not going to happen, but if she did run, and did serve in the House, Crow might discover a new meaning for the phrase “the difficult kind.”