Your weather on the tens

Sen. Andy Berke caused an upper-level disturbance in District 10 when he announced that he will not seek re-election. At first the drop in barometric pressure was slight, since it appeared that Rep. Vince Dean would move in and thus push the volatility over to House District 30.

However, more recent data show Dean staying put, which quieted would-be candidates Larry Grohn and East Ridge Mayor Brent Lambert. Dean will likely face a comparatively weak Democratic front from either Brock Bennington or Sandra Norris Smith, which means he’ll probably blow right through without too much upheaval.

But oh, there’s a storm brewing in the Senate race. On the GOP side, business developer Greg Vital, who was in before Dean was out, is looking like he’ll produce heavy, soaking rains (of campaign cash) while there may be plenty of bluster from rival Todd Gardenhire.

The super cell we’re really watching, though, is the Democratic primary, which got a boost in severity on Friday when Chattanooga City Councilman Andraé McGary announced his intent to run for the seat. With the new district lines, the Republicans are hoping for a change in wind direction, but tensions between the Democrats backing McGary and those backing David Testerman could cause major damage within the party, which will please the GOP regardless. A potential third Democrat, Quenston Coleman, has yet to return his qualifying petition.

In Nashville, the Senate District 20 vortex caused by retiring Sen. Joe Haynes has drawn a substantial pack of storm chasers. Scooter Clippard, Steve Dickerson, David Hall, and Rob Mortensen are among the Republicans; and James Baxter, Kevin Doherty, and Richard Exton are possible Democratic contenders.

Meanwhile, spotters reported that Hall’s son and daughter have pulled petitions in House District 50; or is that bull? Charles Williamson wants to be the nominee to take on Rep. Gary Moore.

In House District 60, former Metro Council member Rep. Jim Gotto is set to clash with current member Darren Jernigan.

We’re trying to establish communications with Lawrence and Giles Counties to see what the situation is on the ground there. A bungled party switch attempt blew Rep. Eddie Bass right out of the water, and it’s just not clear from here what is left in the wake of that rural storm system.

In Memphis, redistricting caused Mississippi floodwaters to pool heavily in Senate District 30, as Sens. Jim Kyle and Beverly Marrero are forced into a primary match.

So far, no watches or warnings are posted for House Districts 10, 40, 80, or 90; but keep your browser tuned right here as things could change rapidly in most of these areas over the next week or two.

Dymon Dave’s Dad joins Senate District 20 race

From the Tennessean’s “In Session” blog:

The Republican race in the 20th Senate District is shaping up to be a battle of the surprise losers from the 2010 election.

David Hall — the one that ran for Congress (we held this a day while we checked that it wasn’t his son, who lost the race for the state House of Representatives) — has declared he’ll vie for the nomination in August.

You remember Hall’s son. His election story inspired all those corny Van Halen puns. (But some might have said I was “On Fire” that day.)

House of Pain: Rosenberg David-ly wroth over ‘Dymon Dave’

Where have all the good times gone? We all know that politics is no Sunday afternoon in the park, but a recent eruption of fireworks in a Nashville state House race has a few politicos on fire.

This story is a little dated, but I figure it’s better to hear about it later than not at all. (Besides, I don’t feel tardy.) Congressional candidate David Hall, who won in a crowded GOP primary the chance to face incumbent U.S. Rep. Jim Cooper and eight independent candidates, has a son (also a Republican) in politics as well. His name is Dymon Dave Hall, and he is seeking election to the Tennessee House of Representatives in the 50th District.

Everybody wants some kind of familiarity with the person they’re electing, which is probably why the Halls, pére et fils, were planning on running with the devil we know, rather than the one we don’t, and thus the name chosen for the ballot was Dave Hall. That caused Hall’s Democratic independent opponent, Dave Rosenberg, to come a little unchained, so he sued. Now it’s all over but the shouting, as a chancery court judge issued a fair warning, and said that the full name (or the name used to file, which omitted the “Dave”) must appear on the ballot, or else a summons would ensue.

Meanwhile, another independent candidate, Nina Ground, and incumbent Rep. Gary Moore (D-Joelton) probably feel like lonely ships upon the water as they watch their two opponents light up the sky. The seat is one of several drawing a lot of “get out and push” in this year’s cycle.

So, when push comes to shove, will the Republicans (or Democrats) end up with a majority of 51? 50? Faced with a loss of control, the GOP will once again try to top Jimmy Naifeh, while Democrats jump at the chance to regain their edge. Whoever wins will surely dance the night away on November 2, as they wish the other side “happy trails.”

I’ll wait for your reactions.

(Updated to correct party affiliations and number of candidates.)